CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-12-18T18:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-12-18T18:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18575/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C6.3 flare peaking at 2021-12-18T18:01Z from around S19E89. This is accompanied by an eruption on the east limb. It is seen with moving/opening field lines, and post eruption arcades in SDO AIA 193/171. The material can also be seen erupting off the east limb in SDO AIA 304. UPDATE (2021-12-24T17:14Z): There may possibly be the weak signature of a flux rope buried in the L1 solar wind data around 2021-12-21T14:05Z, following the arrival of the 2021-12-19 high speed stream, but there is no solar wind density, speed, or temperature data to conclusively support an arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-21T13:43Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2021 Dec 19 1345 UTC # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A CME was observed in SOHO/Lasco C2 on 18-12-2021 at 18:12UT, following a C6.3-class flare from a region at estimated location S19E89. No Stereo data from that time are available at present. Due to its location, a possible influence could be from a shock, with a low possibility of arrival. In such case, the shock may concide with a possible high speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole crossing cntral meridian on Dec 18. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium #Lead Time: 48.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-12-19T13:43Z
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